Enflasyon hedeflemesi ve Türkiye deneyimi
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2007
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Maltepe Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Enflasyon, bir ekonomik istikrarsızlık biçimidir ve “olagan” görülmemesi gereken bir sorundur. Piyasa ekonomilerinde fiyat mekanizmasını bozması, fiyatların bilgi saglayıcı etkisini olumsuz etkilemesi, kaynak ve gelir dagılımını bozması, tasarrufları eritmesi, paranın satın alma gücünü erozyona uğratması, dar ve sabit gelirli kesimlerin yasam kalitesini düsürmesi gibi olumsuz, bozucu hatta yıkıcı birçok ekonomik ve sosyal etkilerinden söz edilebilir. Enflasyon sorunu, çogu kez, yanlıs ve hatalı para ve maliye politikalarının bir ürünüdür. Ancak kabul gören bir görüse göre, enflasyonun kaynagı sözgelimi talep düzeyinin yüksekligi gibi reel bir neden olsa bile, süresi ve siddeti büyük ölçüde “parasal onaya” baglıdır. Bir diger deyisle enflasyon, çogu kez parasal bir sorundur ve bu nedenle de para politikası yöntemleriyle çözülebilir. Merkez bankalarının ekonomideki rolü, islevi ne olmalıdır konusunda yogun tartısmalardan sonra yakın zamanlarda bir uzlasmaya varılmıs görünmektedir. Merkez bankalarının görevi, bulundugu ekonomide fiyat istikrarını saglamaktır. Görev konusunda bu fikirbirligine ulasmak sevindirici görünse de, asıl sorun da bundan sonra baslamaktadır. Bu, yani fiyat istikrarı nasıl gerçeklestirilecektir? Fiyat istikrarının gerçeklestirilmesi konusunda son zamanlarda yerlesik olan düsünce, bir ekonomik hedef belirleyip bu hedeflere uygun para politikaları uygulayıp fiyat istikrarını saglamaktır. Yaygın olarak kullanılan hedef degiskenler arasında kur, seçilen belli parasal büyüklükler, nominal gelir hedeflemesi sayılabilir. Bu sayılan hedefleri tutturma konusunda yürütülen politikaların hepsinin avantaj ve dezavantajları söz konusudur. Örnegin, 1990’larda degisik gelismekte olan ülkelerde, bu arada Türkiye’de de, kullanılan “kur çapası” basarı sansı yüksek olmayan bir yöntem olarak degerlendirilmektedir.
The inflation is a economical unstability form and it is a problem which should not be seen as “normal”. A lot of its economical and social effects which can be negative, disruptive and even destructive can be mentioned like the damaging of the pricing mechanism, the negative effect on the effect of the information provision of the prices, the disruption on the source and the income distribution, the thawing of the savings, the erosion of the buying power of the money, the reduction of the life standard of the narrow and the fixed income public section in the market economies. The inflation problem is the product of wrong and faulty monetary and financial policies in many cases. But, according to an accepted opinion, even though the source of the inflation could be a real reason like the high level of demand, its period and its intensity depends on the “ monetary approval” in the majority of the cases. In other words, the inflation is a monetary problem in many cases and it could be solved with monetary policy methods. It seems that a form of reconciliation have been reached in the recent times after intensive arguments on the subject of what the role and the function of the central banks should have in the economy. The duty of the central banks are to provide the price stability in the economy in which they are situated. Although reaching to this unity in the opinions seems to be wellcomed, the real problem starts afterwards. How is this, the price stability, going to be materialised? The established idea on the materialisation of the price stability lately is to provide the price stability by determining a economical target and applying monetary policies which are suitable for these targets. The exchange rate, a certain monetary magnitude, a nominal income targeting could be counted as the target variables which are used extensively. The advantages and the disadvantages of the policies which are followed to fulfil these stated targets are the point of the issue. For example, “ the exchange rate anchorage “ which was used in the developing countries in the 1990’s and is used in Turkey in the mean time, is evaluated as an method which does not have much success chance.
The inflation is a economical unstability form and it is a problem which should not be seen as “normal”. A lot of its economical and social effects which can be negative, disruptive and even destructive can be mentioned like the damaging of the pricing mechanism, the negative effect on the effect of the information provision of the prices, the disruption on the source and the income distribution, the thawing of the savings, the erosion of the buying power of the money, the reduction of the life standard of the narrow and the fixed income public section in the market economies. The inflation problem is the product of wrong and faulty monetary and financial policies in many cases. But, according to an accepted opinion, even though the source of the inflation could be a real reason like the high level of demand, its period and its intensity depends on the “ monetary approval” in the majority of the cases. In other words, the inflation is a monetary problem in many cases and it could be solved with monetary policy methods. It seems that a form of reconciliation have been reached in the recent times after intensive arguments on the subject of what the role and the function of the central banks should have in the economy. The duty of the central banks are to provide the price stability in the economy in which they are situated. Although reaching to this unity in the opinions seems to be wellcomed, the real problem starts afterwards. How is this, the price stability, going to be materialised? The established idea on the materialisation of the price stability lately is to provide the price stability by determining a economical target and applying monetary policies which are suitable for these targets. The exchange rate, a certain monetary magnitude, a nominal income targeting could be counted as the target variables which are used extensively. The advantages and the disadvantages of the policies which are followed to fulfil these stated targets are the point of the issue. For example, “ the exchange rate anchorage “ which was used in the developing countries in the 1990’s and is used in Turkey in the mean time, is evaluated as an method which does not have much success chance.
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Künye
Güneş, Y. (2007). Enflasyon hedeflemesi ve Türkiye deneyimi / The inflation targeting and the experience of Turkey (Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi). Maltepe Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.