Türkiye'de 1990 sonrası finansal krizlerin erken uyarı sinyalleri ve nitelikleri itibariyle karşılaştırılması / In turkey matching the economic crisis after 1990 terms of their early warning signals and qualities
Yükleniyor...
Tarih
2008
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Maltepe Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Türkiye ekonomisi 1990 yılından sonra iki ekonomik kriz süreci yasamıstır. Türkiye’de 1990 yılı sonrasında gerçeklesen krizleri önceki dönemden ayıran faktör, 1990 sonrası krizlerin dısa açık bir ekonomide gerçeklesmis olmasıdır. 1989 yılında çıkartılan 32 sayılı kararla TL’nin konvertibl oldugu ilan edilmis ve döviz alım-satım serbestligi getirilmistir. Türkiye, bu tarihten itibaren kısa vadeli spekülatif sermaye hareketlerinin etkisine açık bir pozisyona düsmüstür. Çalısma, Türkiye’de 1990 yılı sonrası yasanan krizlerin erken uyarı sinyallerini ortaya koymak, 1994 ve 2001 krizlerini erken uyarı sinyalleri ve nitelikleri itibariyle karsılastırmak amacıyla hazırlanmıstır. 1994 yılı krizi 2001 yılı krizine kıyasla daha hafif atlatılmıstır. 1994 krizinden sonra gerekli önlemlerin alınmaması 2001 krizinin yasanmasına neden olmustur. 2001 krizinden sonra 44000 kisi isiz kalmıstır. Bununla birlikte issizligin niteligi degismistir. ssiz kalanların büyük çogunlugunu yüksek egitimli kisiler olusturmustur. Çalısmada yedi finansal, on reel olmak üzere, toplam on yedi ekonomik gösterge 1992- 2002 dönemi içerisinde, yıllık veya üç aylık bazda aldıkları degerler itibariyle incelenmistir. 1994 ve/veya 2001 yılı krizleri öncesinde anlamlı degiskenlik sergileyen göstergelerin, kriz öncü göstergesi niteligi tasıdıgı kabul edilmistir. Kısa vadeli dıs borçlar, reel döviz kuru, KKBG/GSMH, cari islemler dengesi/GSMH, ihracatın ithalatı karsılama oranı göstergelerinin, hem 1994 hem de 2001 krizi için öncü gösterge niteligi tasıdıgı tespit edilmistir. Bankaların açık pozisyonları ve reel faiz oranı göstergeleri, 2001 krizi öncü göstergesi niteligi tasırken, 1994 krizi öncü göstergesi niteligi tasımamaktadır. 1990’lı yıllardan 2000’li yıllara dogru, göstergelerdeki bozulmanın ve oynaklıgın arttıgı tespit edilmistir. Göstergelerdeki bozulmanın nedeni, kısa vadeli spekülatif sermaye akımlarının ülke ekonomisini istikrarsızlastırmasıdır. 1990’lı yıllarda gerçeklesen dısa açılma ve serbestlesme süreciyle birlikte, Türkiye’nin, kısa vadeli spekülatif sermaye akımlarının etkisine maruz kaldıgını ve söz konusu sermaye akımlarının ekonomik göstergelerde bozulmalara yol açarak ekonomik kriz riskini ve finansal kırılganlık derecesini yükselttigini iddia eden çalısmanın hipotezi kabul edilmistir.
After the year 1990 Turkish economy experienced two economical crisis period. The relevant factor distinguishing economic crises experienced after 1990 from the previous economic crisis relies on the fact that crisis experienced after 1990 were emerged in an open market economy. Based on the decree number 32 issued in 1989, TL was stated as a convertible currency and exchange commerce was liberated. Since that date Turkey remained in an open state of short term speculative capital movements. The present study has been compiled searching out to reveal the early warning signals of the economic crisis experienced after 1990 and to match the 1994 and 2001 crisis in terms of their early warning signals and qualities. 1994 Economic crisis was less severely experienced compare to 2001 crisis. Following the 1994 economic crisis owing to lack of required preventions, 2001 economic crisis emerged. After the 2001 crisis 44.000 individual lost their employments. At the same time, unemployment altered its structural form. Vast majority of unemployed citizens were constituted from high educated individuals. In the present study, seven financial and ten reel corresponding to totally seventeen economic indicators between 1992-2002 period, in the light of their volumes in annual or three month basis were taken into examination. Before the 1994 and/or 2001 crisis economic indicators revealing significant variations were accepted possessing crisis leading indications properties. Short-term foreign debts, reel exchange rates, PSDI/GNP, current balance/GNP, export coverage import indications were proved to be the fundamental indicators related to 1994 and 2001 crisis. Short positions of the banks and reel interest indicators while accepted as the leading indicators for the 2001 crisis they were not the leading indicators for the 1994 crisis. From 1990s up to 2000s destructions over the indicators and fluctuations were investigated intensified. Relying factor for the destruction of indicators remains on instability over the countrywide economy owing to short term speculative capital movements. Together with the internationalization and liberalization emerged over the 1990, related investigations supporting the hypothesis, Turkey was influenced from short-term speculative capital movements and those relevant capital movements leading to corruptions over the economic indicators intensifying economic crisis risk and financial fragility were found justifiable.
After the year 1990 Turkish economy experienced two economical crisis period. The relevant factor distinguishing economic crises experienced after 1990 from the previous economic crisis relies on the fact that crisis experienced after 1990 were emerged in an open market economy. Based on the decree number 32 issued in 1989, TL was stated as a convertible currency and exchange commerce was liberated. Since that date Turkey remained in an open state of short term speculative capital movements. The present study has been compiled searching out to reveal the early warning signals of the economic crisis experienced after 1990 and to match the 1994 and 2001 crisis in terms of their early warning signals and qualities. 1994 Economic crisis was less severely experienced compare to 2001 crisis. Following the 1994 economic crisis owing to lack of required preventions, 2001 economic crisis emerged. After the 2001 crisis 44.000 individual lost their employments. At the same time, unemployment altered its structural form. Vast majority of unemployed citizens were constituted from high educated individuals. In the present study, seven financial and ten reel corresponding to totally seventeen economic indicators between 1992-2002 period, in the light of their volumes in annual or three month basis were taken into examination. Before the 1994 and/or 2001 crisis economic indicators revealing significant variations were accepted possessing crisis leading indications properties. Short-term foreign debts, reel exchange rates, PSDI/GNP, current balance/GNP, export coverage import indications were proved to be the fundamental indicators related to 1994 and 2001 crisis. Short positions of the banks and reel interest indicators while accepted as the leading indicators for the 2001 crisis they were not the leading indicators for the 1994 crisis. From 1990s up to 2000s destructions over the indicators and fluctuations were investigated intensified. Relying factor for the destruction of indicators remains on instability over the countrywide economy owing to short term speculative capital movements. Together with the internationalization and liberalization emerged over the 1990, related investigations supporting the hypothesis, Turkey was influenced from short-term speculative capital movements and those relevant capital movements leading to corruptions over the economic indicators intensifying economic crisis risk and financial fragility were found justifiable.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Erken Uyarı Sinyali, 1994 Krizi, 2001 Krizi, Finansal Kırılganlık, Spekülatif Sermaye, Early Warning Signal, 1994 Crisis, 2001 Crisis, Financial Fragility, Speculative Capital
Kaynak
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
Sayı
Künye
Tuncer, H. (2008). Türkiye'de 1990 sonrası finansal krizlerin erken uyarı sinyalleri ve nitelikleri itibariyle karşılaştırılması / In turkey matching the economic crisis after 1990 terms of their early warning signals and qualities (Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi). Maltepe Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
